Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 93

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 5-J.Townsend punts 55 yards to LA 38, Center-48-A.DePaola. 10-P.Cooper ran ob at 50 for 12 yards (55-M.Lee). LV-48-A.DePaola was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -3.65 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.05 EP
73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 93, worth -5.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model