Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Los Angeles Rams 13

(7:24) 5-J.Townsend punts 45 yards to LA 18, Center-86-L.Smith, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.52 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 63, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model