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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2017-12-17 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌨 Snow Spread -6.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

BAL
59.3%
CLE
40.7%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.156 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: DeShone Kizer (CLE) -0.223 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.109 EPA/dropback
  • BAL defense: -0.170 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23
–
CLE 18
Projected margin: BAL by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

BAL

Jermaine Eluemunor G Questionable Shoulder
Ryan Jensen C Questionable Ankle
Chris Moore WR Questionable Hip
Za'Darius Smith LB Questionable Shoulder
Maurice Canady CB Questionable Knee
Ryan Mallett QB Questionable Hips
Mike Wallace WR Questionable Ankle

CLE

Briean Boddy-Calhoun CB Doubtful Knee
Darius Hillary CB Questionable Knee
Jamar Taylor CB Questionable Foot
Matt Hazel WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 27
–
CLE 10

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:49 FG BAL (8:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – CLE 0
  • Q2 08:18 TD CLE (8:18) (Shotgun) 29-D.Johnson Jr. left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 3 – CLE 6
  • Q2 03:04 TD BAL (3:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – CLE 7
  • Q2 01:07 TD BAL (1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 82-B.Watson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – CLE 7
  • Q2 00:04 FG CLE (:04) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. BAL 17 – CLE 10
  • Q3 07:13 TD BAL (7:13) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer sacked at CLE -2 for -6 yards (90-Z.Smith). FUMBLES (90-Z.Smith) [90-Z.Smith], RECOVERED by BAL-98-B.Williams at CLE 1. 98-B.Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 23 – CLE 10
  • Q3 00:08 FG BAL (:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 27 – CLE 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (8:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (7:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to BAL 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to CLE 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 37 for 11 yards (36-C.Clark; 43-J.Hill). BAL-36-C.Clark was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:30) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 58 yards to CLE 3, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-10-C.Moore.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (11:16) 34-A.Collins right end to CLE 4 for -3 yards (52-J.Burgess Jr.).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:44) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to BAL 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 48%

    (11:11) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CLE 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-88-V.Mayle.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:06) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to BAL 49, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-10-S.Coates.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 15 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 53%

    (7:21) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to CLE 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-10-C.Moore.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 58%

    (3:25) 7-D.Kizer left guard to BAL 39 for no gain (57-C.Mosley). Cleveland challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 03:17.)

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 85%

    (:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 38%

    (6:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 31 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:22) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to BAL 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-M.Campanaro ran ob at BAL 32 for no gain (36-D.Smith).