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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 1

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 34-A.Collins right end to CLE 4 for -3 yards (52-J.Burgess Jr.).

The Three Options

GO +3.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 1, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model