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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 41

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to CLE 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-10-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.30 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model