Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 83

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 27

(5:22) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to BAL 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-M.Campanaro ran ob at BAL 32 for no gain (36-D.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.79 EP
67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 83, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model