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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to CLE 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 37 for 11 yards (36-C.Clark; 43-J.Hill). BAL-36-C.Clark was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.14 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model