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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 20:30 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

PHI
53.9%
SEA
46.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.200 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Carson Wentz (PHI): +0.188 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PHI 25
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: PHI by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

PHI

Joe Walker LB Questionable Neck

SEA

Oday Aboushi G Out Shoulder
Kam Chancellor S Out Neck
Josh Forrest LB Out Foot
Nazair Jones DT Doubtful Ankle
Dion Jordan DE Doubtful Neck
Duane Brown T Questionable Ankle
Jimmy Graham TE Questionable Ankle
Earl Thomas S Questionable Heel
Bobby Wagner LB Questionable Hamstring
D.J. Alexander LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 10
–
SEA 24

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:51 FG SEA (9:51) 7-B.Walsh 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. PHI 0 – SEA 3
  • Q1 00:14 TD SEA (:14) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-J.Graham for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – SEA 9
  • Q2 07:55 FG PHI (7:55) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 3 – SEA 10
  • Q3 05:47 TD SEA (5:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – SEA 16
  • Q4 12:15 TD PHI (12:15) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 13-N.Agholor for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – SEA 17
  • Q4 07:33 TD SEA (7:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 21-J.McKissic for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 10 – SEA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 80%

    (9:51) 7-B.Walsh 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 23%

    (6:31) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to SEA 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 13 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:31) 9-J.Ryan punts 39 yards to SEA 46, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 14 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 29%

    (3:08) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to SEA 13, Center-45-R.Lovato. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 15 for 2 yards (30-C.Clement).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 97%

    (7:55) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:48) 9-J.Ryan punts 39 yards to PHI 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 38%

    (:18) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to SEA 3, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-10-M.Hollins.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 78%

    (11:37) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to SEA 27 for 2 yards (90-J.Reed).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 85%

    (3:55) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 38-K.Barner [50-K.Wright].

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 53%

    (5:48) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 88-T.Burton [54-B.Wagner].

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:37) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to PHI 21, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:16) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 30-C.Clement pushed ob at PHI 48 for 23 yards (30-B.McDougald).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:05) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to PHI 35, Center-69-T.Ott. 38-K.Barner to PHI 35 for no gain (23-N.Thorpe).