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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(:18) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to SEA 3, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-10-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.56 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP