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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.68 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 8, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP