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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 53

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to SEA 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.34 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 53, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP