Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NO offense: +0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Brett Hundley (GB): -0.363 EPA/dropback in prior starts (GB starting Brett Hundley in place of Aaron Rodgers)
- GB offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- GB defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- Brett Hundley (GB) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
NO
GB
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:09 TD GB (13:09) 33-A.Jones right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – GB 6
- Q2 12:35 TD NO (12:35) 65-S.Kelemete reported in as eligible. 22-M.Ingram left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – GB 7
- Q2 08:45 TD GB (8:45) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – GB 13
- Q3 11:29 TD NO (11:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 16-B.Coleman for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – GB 14
- Q3 04:12 FG NO (4:12) 3-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 16 – GB 14
- Q4 14:50 FG GB (14:50) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-T.Pepper, Holder-8-J.Vogel. NO 16 – GB 17
- Q4 10:26 FG NO (10:26) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 19 – GB 17
- Q4 04:57 TD NO (4:57) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 25 – GB 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 29Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 75%
(7:50) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas to GB 24 for 5 yards (50-B.Martinez).
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Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EPp(convert) 73%
(5:08) 8-J.Vogel punts 51 yards to NO 20, Center-59-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on GB-27-J.Jones, Fair Catch Interference, 0 yards, enforced at NO 20.
-
Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 88Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 54%
(:53) 8-J.Vogel punts 41 yards to NO 47, Center-59-T.Pepper, downed by GB-29-K.Brice.
-
Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EPp(convert) 61% p(FG) 40%
(5:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to GB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.
-
Q2 GB 4th & 19 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(3:05) 8-J.Vogel punts 60 yards to NO 12, Center-59-T.Pepper. 19-T.Ginn MUFFS catch, and recovers at NO 13. 19-T.Ginn to NO 20 for 7 yards (50-B.Martinez).
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Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 63%
(1:33) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to GB 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-21-D.Harris.
-
Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(9:00) 8-J.Vogel punts 42 yards to NO 16, Center-59-T.Pepper, downed by GB-59-T.Pepper.
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Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%
(4:12) 3-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
-
Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 77%
(14:50) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-T.Pepper, Holder-8-J.Vogel.
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Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 81%
(10:26) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
-
Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(8:32) 8-J.Vogel punts 44 yards to NO 40, Center-59-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on GB-27-J.Jones, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at NO 40.