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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 88

Green Bay Packers 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(:53) 8-J.Vogel punts 41 yards to NO 47, Center-59-T.Pepper, downed by GB-29-K.Brice.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.56 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 88, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP