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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to GB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.83 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP