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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 28

Green Bay Packers 14 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(14:50) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-T.Pepper, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.81 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model