Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 14 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 8-J.Vogel punts 60 yards to NO 12, Center-59-T.Pepper. 19-T.Ginn MUFFS catch, and recovers at NO 13. 19-T.Ginn to NO 20 for 7 yards (50-B.Martinez).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.42 EP
73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model