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HC Mike Mularkey
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2017-10-01 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

TEN
57.1%
HOU
42.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to TEN: Deshaun Watson (HOU) -0.173 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) +0.155 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: -0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.146 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 22
–
HOU 20
Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

TEN

Johnathan Cyprien S Out Hamstring
Corey Davis WR Out Hamstring
Jurrell Casey DT Questionable Groin

HOU

Kevin Johnson CB Out Knee
Greg Mancz C Out Knee
Marcus Burley CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 14
–
HOU 57

Prediction missed by 45 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:17 TD HOU (12:17) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – HOU 6
  • Q1 05:14 TD HOU (5:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – HOU 13
  • Q2 15:00 TD HOU (15:00) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller V for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – HOU 20
  • Q2 11:51 TD TEN (11:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota left end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – HOU 21
  • Q2 06:06 FG HOU (6:06) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. TEN 7 – HOU 24
  • Q2 02:00 TD TEN (2:00) 8-M.Mariota right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – HOU 24
  • Q2 01:23 TD HOU (1:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – HOU 30
  • Q3 06:58 TD HOU (6:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 15-W.Fuller V for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – HOU 36
  • Q4 11:25 TD HOU (11:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 26-L.Miller for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – HOU 43
  • Q4 08:44 FG HOU (8:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. TEN 14 – HOU 47
  • Q4 08:39 TD HOU (8:39) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short middle intended for 82-D.Walker INTERCEPTED by 51-D.Cole at TEN 25. 51-D.Cole for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – HOU 53
  • Q4 03:39 FG HOU (3:39) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. TEN 14 – HOU 57

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:24) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to HOU 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 24 for 4 yards (89-P.Supernaw).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:48) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to HOU 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller V.(The Punt hang-time was 4.22 secs.)

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 18 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 73%

    (6:06) 7-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 82%

    (9:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to TEN 23 for 4 yards (36-L.Sims).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (5:21) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to HOU 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. (The Punt hang-time was 4.50 secs.)

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:43) 9-S.Lechler punts 61 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 21 for 3 yards (22-J.Todman).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:54) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to HOU 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. (The Punt hang-time was 4.34 secs.)

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 89%

    (8:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (3:39) 7-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:18) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to HOU 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-C.Thompson to HOU 26 for no gain (41-B.Trawick).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 61 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-14-C.Thompson.