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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 79

Houston Texans 37 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 9-S.Lechler punts 61 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 21 for 3 yards (22-J.Todman).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.04 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model