Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 70

Houston Texans 57 – Tennessee Titans 14

(:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 61 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-14-C.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.38 EP
61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -1.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model