Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 37

(1:54) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to HOU 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. (The Punt hang-time was 4.34 secs.)

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.23 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model