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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 27

Houston Texans 30 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(9:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to TEN 23 for 4 yards (36-L.Sims).

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.45 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model