NYG @ TB — 4th & Data

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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter

Sunday 2017-10-01 · 16:05 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

NYG

28.5%

71.5%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NYG offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
QB edge to TB: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.148 vs Eli Manning (NYG) -0.065 EPA/dropback
TB defense: -0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
NYG defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19

–

TB 26

Projected margin: TB by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NYG

Jonathan Casillas LB Questionable Ankle

Orleans Darkwa RB Questionable Back

Brett Jones C Questionable Hip

Olivier Vernon DE Questionable Ankle

TB

Kwon Alexander LB Out Hamstring

Lavonte David LB Doubtful Ankle

T.J. Ward S Doubtful Hip

Robert Ayers DE Questionable Knee

Brent Grimes CB Questionable Shoulder

Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Ankle

Noah Spence DE Questionable Shoulder

J.R. Sweezy G Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 23

–

TB 25

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:52 TD TB (7:52) (No Huddle) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – TB 6
Q1 03:12 TD TB (3:12) (No Huddle) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 80-O.Howard for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – TB 13
Q2 07:21 FG NYG (7:21) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – TB 13
Q2 03:25 TD NYG (3:25) (No Huddle) 10-E.Manning scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – TB 13
Q2 00:35 FG TB (:35) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. NYG 10 – TB 16
Q3 04:24 TD NYG (4:24) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 22-W.Gallman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – TB 16
Q4 07:49 TD TB (7:49) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-C.Brate for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 17 – TB 22
Q4 03:22 TD NYG (3:22) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 85-R.Ellison for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 23 – TB 22
Q4 00:04 FG TB (:04) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. Penalty on NYG-21-L.Collins, Defensive Offside, declined. NYG 23 – TB 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYG 4th & 12 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(13:13) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to TB 37, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-18-R.Lewis.
Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 56

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 51%

(11:16) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to NYG 3, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-26-J.Robinson.
Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 89

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP

p(convert) 60%

(9:58) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to TB 43, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 18-B.Reedy to TB 44 for 1 yard (18-R.Lewis).
Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 30

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 74%

(3:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 15-B.Marshall (36-R.McClain) [93-G.McCoy].
Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 48

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 29%

(1:06) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.
Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(15:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 62 yards to NYG 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-26-J.Robinson.
Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(13:42) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 56 yards to TB 22, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 18-B.Reedy to TB 37 for 15 yards (85-R.Ellison).
Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 78%

(11:58) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 12

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 95%

(7:21) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.
Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(6:38) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to NYG 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.
Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP

p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

(:35) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 74%

(10:14) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q3 TB 4th & 19 at the 89

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(3:26) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to NYG 45, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.
Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 83%

(14:19) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.
Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 35

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 63%

(10:23) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Brate (21-L.Collins).
Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP

p(convert) 49%

(9:32) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 15 yards to TB 43, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.