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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:58) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.90 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model