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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:16) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to NYG 3, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-26-J.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.99 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP