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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 12

New York Giants 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:21) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.92 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP