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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:35) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +3.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.38 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 2, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP