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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Monday 2017-09-11 · 19:10 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

NO
52.8%
MIN
47.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.172 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 24
–
MIN 23
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Shoulder
Trey Hendrickson DE Out Illness
Nathan Stupar LB Out Hamstring
Stephone Anthony LB Questionable Ankle

MIN

Danny Isidora G Out Knee
Tramaine Brock CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 19
–
MIN 29

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:26 FG NO (8:26) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 01:05 FG MIN (1:05) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NO 3 – MIN 3
  • Q2 05:30 FG NO (5:30) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 6 – MIN 3
  • Q2 04:13 TD MIN (4:13) (No Huddle) 8-S.Bradford pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – MIN 9
  • Q2 00:07 TD MIN (:07) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 6 – MIN 16
  • Q3 11:11 FG MIN (11:11) 2-K.Forbath 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NO 6 – MIN 19
  • Q3 02:46 FG NO (2:46) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 9 – MIN 19
  • Q4 12:57 TD MIN (12:57) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – MIN 25
  • Q4 07:53 FG NO (7:53) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 12 – MIN 26
  • Q4 04:05 FG MIN (4:05) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NO 12 – MIN 29
  • Q4 02:00 TD NO (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 82-C.Fleener for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 18 – MIN 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 15 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 85%

    (8:26) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (1:05) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:56) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to MIN 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 25 for 13 yards (31-C.Banjo).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:24) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 52 yards to NO 24, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-T.Ginn to NO 24 for no gain (27-J.Kearse).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (5:30) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 68 yards to MIN 5, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-31-C.Banjo.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%

    (11:11) 2-K.Forbath 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:36) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to MIN 34, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 32 for -2 yards (31-C.Banjo).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 16 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 40%

    (5:36) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to NO 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (2:46) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (7:53) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 83%

    (4:05) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.