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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 19 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to NO 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.99 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model