Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

(12:24) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 52 yards to NO 24, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-T.Ginn to NO 24 for no gain (27-J.Kearse).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model