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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 13

Minnesota Vikings 16 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 2-K.Forbath 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.38 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 13, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP