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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 7

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(1:05) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 7, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model