4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
NO Away

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 16:25 Georgia Dome, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 58.5

Win Probability

NO
38.8%
ATL
61.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.216 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.269 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.181 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NO 23
–
ATL 28
Projected margin: ATL by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NO

Ken Crawley CB Out Knee
Dannell Ellerbe LB Questionable Foot
Craig Robertson LB Questionable Shoulder

ATL

Austin Hooper TE Out Knee
Taylor Gabriel WR Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 32
–
ATL 38

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:01 TD ATL (12:01) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 26-T.Coleman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – ATL 6
  • Q1 03:57 FG NO (3:57) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – ATL 7
  • Q1 03:53 TD ATL (3:53) 24-D.Freeman right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 3 – ATL 13
  • Q1 00:56 TD NO (:56) 34-T.Hightower left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – ATL 14
  • Q2 14:22 TD ATL (14:22) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – ATL 20
  • Q2 06:58 TD ATL (6:58) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 12-M.Sanu for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – ATL 27
  • Q2 03:44 FG NO (3:44) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 13 – ATL 28
  • Q2 00:36 TD ATL (:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 16-J.Hardy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – ATL 34
  • Q3 05:22 FG ATL (5:22) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. NO 13 – ATL 38
  • Q4 12:47 TD NO (12:47) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – ATL 38
  • Q4 02:50 TD NO (2:50) 22-M.Ingram right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 25 – ATL 38
  • Q4 00:45 TD NO (:45) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 38-T.Cadet for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-13-M.Thomas was injured during the play. NO 31 – ATL 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:21) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to ATL 17, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-E.Weems to ATL 32 for 15 yards (37-C.Banjo).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 77%

    (6:07) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 82-C.Fleener to ATL 5 for 25 yards (23-R.Alford).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.03 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (3:57) 3-W.Lutz 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to ATL 16, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-E.Weems to ATL 24 for 8 yards (54-N.Stupar; 97-S.Barrington).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 88%

    (3:44) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:04) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to NO 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to ATL 1, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-87-T.Lewis.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (5:22) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:39) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to ATL 24, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-E.Weems to ATL 40 for 16 yards (47-J.Drescher).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 52%

    (15:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 30 yards to NO 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:06) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to NO 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 87-T.Lewis to NO 32 for 6 yards (91-C.Upshaw).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:16) 5-M.Bosher punts 47 yards to NO 31, Center-47-J.Harris. 87-T.Lewis to NO 35 for 4 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on ATL-91-C.Upshaw, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 35.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 26%

    (2:20) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 13-M.Thomas pushed ob at ATL 35 for 17 yards (32-J.Collins).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 84%

    (1:35) 22-M.Ingram right end to ATL 17 for 9 yards (29-C.Goodwin).