Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 77

New Orleans Saints 13 – Atlanta Falcons 38

(4:39) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to ATL 24, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-E.Weems to ATL 40 for 16 yards (47-J.Drescher).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 77, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model