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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 22

New Orleans Saints 10 – Atlanta Falcons 28

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model