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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 25 – Atlanta Falcons 38

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 13-M.Thomas pushed ob at ATL 35 for 17 yards (32-J.Collins).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.95 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 52, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model