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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 4

Atlanta Falcons 35 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 4, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP