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Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Saturday 2016-12-24 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread 4.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

MIA
63.2%
BUF
36.8%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Matt Moore (MIA): +0.789 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: +0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 24
–
BUF 22
Projected margin: MIA by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

MIA

Ryan Tannehill QB Out Knee
Jelani Jenkins LB Doubtful Knee
Byron Maxwell CB Doubtful Ankle
Isa Abdul-Quddus S Questionable Ankle
Kiko Alonso LB Questionable Hamstring
Jermon Bushrod T Questionable Shoulder
Bobby McCain CB Questionable Knee
Mario Williams DE Questionable Ankle

BUF

Lerentee McCray LB Out Concussion
Cordy Glenn T Doubtful Back
Preston Brown LB Questionable Foot
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Jerome Felton RB Questionable Foot
John Miller G Questionable Hip
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Foot
Kyle Williams DT Questionable Back
Jerel Worthy DT Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 34
–
BUF 31

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:30 TD MIA (6:30) 23-J.Ajayi right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BUF 0
  • Q2 13:45 TD MIA (13:45) (Shotgun) 32-K.Drake left guard for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – BUF 0
  • Q2 05:14 TD BUF (5:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 9 yds. into end zone. MIA 14 – BUF 6
  • Q3 12:15 TD MIA (12:15) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short left to 11-D.Parker for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at MIA 48, crossing from middle. MIA 20 – BUF 7
  • Q3 06:53 TD BUF (6:53) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: R.Incognito. MIA 21 – BUF 13
  • Q3 03:18 TD MIA (3:18) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short right to 10-K.Stills for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line. MIA 27 – BUF 14
  • Q3 01:18 TD BUF (1:18) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 85-C.Clay for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-24-I.Abdul-Quddus was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Caught at MIA 2, slanting to middle. I.Abdul-Quddus assisted off. MIA 28 – BUF 20
  • Q4 05:55 FG BUF (5:55) 2-D.Carpenter 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. MIA 28 – BUF 24
  • Q4 01:25 TD BUF (1:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 85-C.Clay for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. MIA 28 – BUF 30
  • Q4 00:10 FG MIA (:10) 3-A.Franks 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 31 – BUF 31
  • Q5 00:51 FG MIA (:51) 3-A.Franks 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 34 – BUF 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:53) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to MIA 30, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-29-K.Seymour.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (12:26) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to BUF 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-B.Tate to BUF 40 for 23 yards (57-T.Reilly; 4-M.Darr). Key block: J.Williams.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:47) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to MIA 19, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 28 for 9 yards (29-K.Seymour, 84-N.O'Leary).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 76%

    (:34) 2-D.Carpenter 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 47%

    (9:08) 35-M.Gillislee right guard to MIA 39 for no gain (47-K.Alonso, 93-N.Suh). Measurement = short of line to gain; MIA ball.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:00) 4-M.Darr punts 38 yards to BUF 21, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:56) 4-M.Darr punts 41 yards to BUF 16, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 76%

    (10:20) 3-A.Franks 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (5:55) 2-D.Carpenter 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 7 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 19%

    (4:12) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to BUF 11, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-57-T.Reilly.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (1:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 85-C.Clay for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 53%

    (:10) 3-A.Franks 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.