Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 0

(8:00) 4-M.Darr punts 38 yards to BUF 21, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.61 EP
62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model