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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 39

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 35-M.Gillislee right guard to MIA 39 for no gain (47-K.Alonso, 93-N.Suh). Measurement = short of line to gain; MIA ball.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.68 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 39, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model