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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 28 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 3-A.Franks 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.17 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model