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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 7

Buffalo Bills 24 – Miami Dolphins 28

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 85-C.Clay for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 7, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model