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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2016-12-18 · 16:05 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

NO
49.4%
ARI
50.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: -0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.135 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 23
–
ARI 24
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NO

Stephone Anthony LB Out Knee
Delvin Breaux CB Out Shoulder
Shiloh Keo S Questionable Hamstring
Daniel Lasco RB Questionable Hamstring
Craig Robertson LB Questionable Shoulder
Max Unger C Questionable Foot

ARI

D.J. Humphries T Out Concussion
John Brown WR Questionable Illness
Marcus Cooper CB Questionable Back
Jermaine Gresham TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 48
–
ARI 41

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 42 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:38 TD ARI (12:38) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 33-K.Williams. 33-K.Williams right end for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – ARI 6
  • Q1 05:32 FG NO (5:32) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – ARI 7
  • Q1 01:41 TD NO (1:41) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 38-T.Cadet for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – ARI 7
  • Q2 07:20 TD ARI (7:20) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at ARI 47 for -7 yards (44-M.Golden). FUMBLES (44-M.Golden) [44-M.Golden], RECOVERED by ARI-93-C.Campbell at ARI 47. 93-C.Campbell for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – ARI 13
  • Q2 06:21 TD NO (6:21) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 10-B.Cooks for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – ARI 13
  • Q2 02:00 TD NO (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-B.Cooks for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – ARI 13
  • Q2 00:45 TD ARI (:45) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 14-J.Nelson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 24 – ARI 19
  • Q3 06:11 FG NO (6:11) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 27 – ARI 20
  • Q3 03:23 TD ARI (3:23) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 27 – ARI 26
  • Q4 13:04 TD NO (13:04) 78-L.Turner reported in as eligible. 34-T.Hightower right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 33 – ARI 27
  • Q4 09:02 TD ARI (9:02) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 34 – ARI 33
  • Q4 05:39 TD NO (5:39) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 40 – ARI 34
  • Q4 03:31 TD NO (3:31) 78-L.Turner reported in as eligible. 34-T.Hightower right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 47 – ARI 34
  • Q4 02:25 TD ARI (2:25) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep left to 12-Jo.Brown for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-N.Fairley]. NO 48 – ARI 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (5:32) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 62%

    (11:31) 7-C.Catanzaro 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 67%

    (8:22) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 83-W.Snead to ARI 30 for 5 yards (36-D.Swearinger).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (3:42) 6-M.Wile punts 36 yards to NO 38, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-22-T.Jefferson.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:16) 6-T.Morstead punts 30 yards to ARI 40, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 47%

    (12:09) 6-M.Wile punts 32 yards to NO 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 90%

    (6:11) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 35%

    (2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald to NO 43 for 5 yards (24-S.Moore).