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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 37

Arizona Cardinals 7 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 7-C.Catanzaro 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model