Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 24 – Arizona Cardinals 20

(14:16) 6-T.Morstead punts 30 yards to ARI 40, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model