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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 43

Arizona Cardinals 20 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 6-M.Wile punts 32 yards to NO 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model