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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 48

Arizona Cardinals 34 – New Orleans Saints 48

What Actually Happened

(2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald to NO 43 for 5 yards (24-S.Moore).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.62 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model