Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: +0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.285 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- ATL defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- KC offense: +0.011 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
KC
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:05 TD ATL (10:05) 76-T.Compton reported in as eligible. 24-D.Freeman right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – ATL 6
- Q1 08:06 TD KC (8:06) (Shotgun) 32-S.Ware left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – ATL 7
- Q1 05:15 FG ATL (5:15) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. KC 6 – ATL 10
- Q2 13:29 FG ATL (13:29) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. KC 6 – ATL 13
- Q2 07:10 TD KC (7:10) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 32-S.Ware for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 12 – ATL 13
- Q2 00:48 TD KC (:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 18-T.Gabriel INTERCEPTED by 29-E.Berry at ATL 37. 29-E.Berry for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – ATL 13
- Q2 00:02 FG ATL (:02) 3-M.Bryant 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. KC 20 – ATL 16
- Q3 13:02 TD KC (13:02) (Punt formation) 12-A.Wilson right guard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – ATL 16
- Q4 12:01 TD ATL (12:01) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – ATL 22
- Q4 04:37 TD ATL (4:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 19-A.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – ATL 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%
(5:15) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%
(13:29) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%
(7:10) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 32-S.Ware for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(3:26) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to KC 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-T.Hill to KC 11 for -1 yards (29-C.Goodwin).
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Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to ATL 26, Center-41-J.Winchester. 14-E.Weems to ATL 25 for -1 yards (57-D.Alexander).
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Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 55Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(13:02) (Punt formation) 12-A.Wilson right guard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 10Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 96%
(9:00) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 24-D.Freeman (51-F.Zombo).
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Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 42%
(3:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
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Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 60%
(9:34) 2-D.Colquitt punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.