4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 4

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 3-M.Bryant 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +3.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.45 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 4, worth +0.48 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP