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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(13:02) (Punt formation) 12-A.Wilson right guard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.75 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model