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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Atlanta Falcons 22

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 2-D.Colquitt punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.02 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP